The Illusion of Control: Are You Really in Charge of Your Trades?
You think you're driving the trade, but are you really?
Let’s be honest: most traders think they’re in control. You plan your entries, tighten your stop loss, and maybe even whisper motivational quotes to your screen. But when the market makes a sharp left and your trade crashes into a loss, you’re left wondering, “Was I ever really in charge?”
Welcome to one of trading’s greatest psychological traps: The Illusion of Control.
What Is the Illusion of Control?
The illusion of control is a cognitive bias where we overestimate our ability to influence outcomes, even when those outcomes are mostly random or out of our hands. In trading, this shows up in subtle and dangerous ways:
Believing that more screen time means better results
Thinking your trade will work out just because you really want it to
Feeling that adjusting your stop-loss by a few cents is “smart risk management” rather than emotional meddling
You may be holding the mouse, but the market is holding the dice.
Signs You’re Trapped in the Illusion
How do you know if you’re suffering from this illusion? Here are some red flags:
You revenge trade. You lost a trade and immediately try to "fix it" with another one.
You constantly tweak your system. Not based on data, but based on “a feeling.”
You feel personal responsibility for outcomes in random environments. Like thinking you failed when your perfect setup didn’t play out.
You blame external factors. News, the Fed, Elon Musk's tweets… anything but your process.
Spoiler: You're not in full control. And you never will be.
What Can You Control?
Here's the paradox: you can’t control the outcome, but you can control the inputs.
What’s in Your Control:
The system you trade
Your position size
Your entry and exit rules
How you respond to a win or a loss
Whether or not you follow your plan
What’s Not in Your Control:
Whether a breakout holds
News releases
Volume spikes
The direction of the next candle
Once you stop trying to control the uncontrollable, you’ll start focusing on the few things you can master… and that’s where your power is.
Reclaiming Your Sanity
Here are 3 actionable steps to step out of the illusion:
Trade like a robot. Follow your system. If it says buy, you buy. If it says stop, you stop. Period.
Log everything. A trading journal doesn’t lie. Over time, you’ll see that randomness plays a bigger role than you want to admit.
Detach from outcome-based emotions. A winning trade doesn’t mean you did well. A losing trade doesn’t mean you did poorly. Judge yourself based on execution, not results.
A Truth Most Traders Avoid
You will never be in full control. The best you can do is master yourself within the chaos. And ironically, that’s where consistent profit lives: not in control, but in discipline.
“In trading, you’re not paid to be right. You’re paid to follow your plan.”
- Unknown, but probably someone who blew up a few accounts first
Quick Glossary
Illusion of Control: A psychological bias where a person believes they can influence outcomes they actually can't.
Revenge Trade: A trade taken emotionally after a loss, usually without proper analysis or setup.
Execution: The act of following a trading plan exactly, regardless of the outcome.
Discipline: The ability to stick to your trading rules under pressure or emotion.